- Eight in ten households (80%) are worried their energy bill will rise due to the conflict in Iran, with 40% feeling very worried[1] as wholesale gas prices soar 20%[2]
- The increased cost of wholesale gas means that the July price cap is predicted to increase by nearly £332 (20%) to £1,973 per year, although it is still early on in the observation window[3]
- Most households don’t realise they are protected in the short term, with three-fifths (59%) unaware that energy bills will fall for everyone on 1 April[4]
- The April price cap was set before the Iran conflict began, and will still drop £117 on average due to the government removing certain levies from bills
- In an interview with Uswitch’s director of regulation, the Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband said “Lessons have been learned from the past” when compared to the crisis following the Russia-Ukraine conflict
- As fixed deals can be removed or repriced quickly in periods of market volatility, Uswitch advises households to assess their options and choose what’s right for them.
Eight in ten households (80%) are worried their energy bill will rise due to the conflict in Iran – with 40% feeling very worried[1], according to research by Uswitch.com, the comparison and switching service.
A 20% rise in wholesale gas costs[2] means that July’s price cap is predicted to increase by nearly £332 (20%) to £1,973[3].
Most households don’t realise they are protected from bill rises in the short term, with three-fifths (59%) unaware that the price cap will fall 6.7% (£117 for average annual consumption) for those on default tariffs on 1 April while existing fixed tariffs will also become cheaper[4].
The main reason for the price cap falling on 1 April is the Government’s decision to remove certain levies from energy bills. The changes to April’s energy price cap were decided on Wednesday, 25 February, days before the Iran conflict began.
Consumers appear confused about what to do next, with a quarter (26%) planning to do nothing about their energy bills, and three in ten (29%) unsure what action to take next time they need to make a decision. Those on standard variable tariffs are the most unsure, with a quarter (26%) planning to stay on their tariff, a further 23% planning to do nothing, while a third (32%) don’t know what they’ll do[6].
In an interview with Uswitch’s director of regulation, the Energy Secretary, Ed Miliband said “Lessons have been learned from the past” when compared to the crisis following the Russia-Ukraine conflict
The number of available fixed energy tariffs has been fluctuating in recent weeks in reaction to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has caused a spike in wholesale energy costs.
As of 2pm on Friday 20 March 2026, there were 20 fixed energy tariffs available[7].
Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at Uswitch.com, said: “Households are understandably worried about the cost of their energy bills, especially in light of what they are seeing on the news.
“The millions of people who fear that their energy prices are increasing on 1 April can be reassured, as energy rates for all households will drop in the short term.
“If you’re on a standard tariff, which is dictated by the Ofgem price cap, your bills will still fall by 6.7% in April, and stay at that level until the end of June.
“Unfortunately, early predictions suggest the price cap, which dictates prices for those on standard variable tariffs, could increase by over 20%, or about £332 for the average home on 1 July. This is a result of the conflict in the Middle East driving up the wholesale prices of energy.
“It’s still relatively early in the regulators observation window, and it won’t be until the end of May the price cap energy rates for July will be set out by Ofgem.
“If you’re not already on a fixed energy deal, there are currently 20 tariffs available. These have increased in price within the last day or so, but if certainty over your rates is something you want - you should assess the options available.
“It’s important to run a quick comparison to see tailored options available to your personal energy usage. If there are options on offer which give you the opportunity to lock in reasonable rates, it’s worth considering if you value price certainty.
“Those who opt to switch will still receive a reduction to their unit rates once the Government’s energy bill cuts take place from 1 April, this applies not just to the price cap, but fixed deals too.
“If you cannot find a tariff you’re comfortable switching to, make sure you’re signed up to receive email alerts from Uswitch.com to be informed when new tariffs become available."
Assess your options by comparing energy deals at Uswitch.com
For more information
Rianna York | Energy PR Manager
rianna.york@rvu.co.uk
Twitter: @UswitchPR
Notes to editors
Research conducted online by Opinium, 13th to 18th March 2026, among 2,002 UK energy bill-payers, weighted to be nationally representative.
1. Respondents were asked ‘To what extent, if at all, are you worried that the current conflict in the Middle East will cause your energy bills to rise?’ 40% said Very worried, 39% said Slightly worried, 10% said Not very worried, 4% said Not worried at all, 6% said Don’t know.
2. BBC News: Gas prices in UK and Europe soar after strikes on energy facilities in Qatar and Iran
3. Cornwall Insight: Energy price cap predictions
4. Respondents were asked ‘As far as you are aware, what, if anything, is happening to household energy bills on April 1st?’ 25% said They are going up (bills will increase), 41% said They are going down (bills will decrease), 10% said They are staying the same, 4% said Nothing is happening, 20% said I don’t know. 100% - 41% = 59%.
5. Respondents were asked ‘You said you think the following will happen to average household energy bills, from April 1st. Why do you think this is the case?’ 41% said Changes in how the energy regulator Ofgem calculates the price cap, 41% said Government policy changes to energy levies (costs included in energy bills), 22% said Changes in global wholesale energy prices, 20%, Energy companies increasing or decreasing their prices, 20% said Iran war, 10% said Ukraine war, 10% said Changes in energy demand due to the time of year, 2% said Other, 7% said Don’t know.
6. Respondents were asked ‘Which of the following, if any, best describes what action you expect to take regarding your energy tariff the next time you need to make a decision?’ 26% said I plan to do nothing, 23% said I plan to switch to a fixed tariff, 12% said I plan to stay on a standard variable tariff, 5% said I plan to switch to a tracker tariff, 2% said N/A - I cannot switch due to energy debt, 3% said Other, 29% said Don’t know.
7. Uswitch data